November 20, 2007

Tied for First in Iowa

A Washington Post-ABC News poll released today shows Huckabee statistically tied with Romney for first place in Iowa:

Romney 28
Huckabee 24
Thompson 15
Giuliani 13
McCain 6
Paul 6

Key elements of the Republican base are coalescing around Mike Huckabee in Iowa, lifting this comparatively little-known candidate to the first rank in the first state to cast votes in the 2008 presidential contest.

The surge for Huckabee is remarkable in size and intensity alike. He's attracted not just support but enthusiastic support, from core Republican groups including conservatives, evangelicals and strong abortion opponents.

Huckabee's support in Iowa has gone from 8 percent in an ABC News/Washington Post poll in late July to 24 percent now, up threefold. Mitt Romney has 28 percent support, essentially unchanged from 26 percent in July. With sampling error, they're about even.

FIRED UP – And Huckabee supporters are fired up. Fifty percent say they're "very enthusiastic" about supporting him, compared with just 28 percent of Romney's. Similarly, 48 percent of Huckabee supporters are "definitely" for him; that applies to just 29 percent of Romney's. Indeed, 42 percent of Romney's supporters say there's a "good chance" they may change their minds; among Huckabee's, that falls to 26 percent.

Looking at it another way, among likely caucus-goers who are "very enthusiastic" about their choice, Huckabee leads Romney by 37-25 percent. Among those who say they've definitely made up their minds, 34 percent support Huckabee, 24 percent Romney. That makes for a better turnout profile for Huckabee.

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