December 27: Iowa Poll Update

2 new polls for Iowa were released today which at first glance might seem contradictory. A Strategic Vision poll shows a tight race, Huckabee 29 and Romney 27. Meanwhile, an LA Times/Bloomberg poll reports Huckabee ahead of Romney by 14 points, 37 to 23.

However, if you look more closely at the LA Times/Bloomberg poll results, you'll find that among registered voters, Huckabee leads by 14 points; among likely caucus goers, he leads by just 8 points: Huckabee 36, Romney 28.

So while the LA Times/Bloomberg poll is certainly good news for Huckabee, even so it looks like a fairly close race in Iowa: Huckabee leads by about 5 points (if you take the average of the last 4 polls). Huckabee supporters in Iowa must not take anything for granted, but go to the caucuses next Thursday and make history.