February 11: Poll Update

An exciting new Survey USA poll for Virginia:

Eve of VA GOP Primary, Huckabee Closes-In On McCain:

Big movement in Virginia following Mike Huckabee's strong showing over the weekend in Louisiana, Kansas and Washington state. On the eve of the Virginia Republican Primary, it's John McCain 48%, Mike Huckabee 37%.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 72 hours ago, McCain is down 9, Huckabee is up 12. McCain had led by 32, now leads by 11. Among Conservative voters, McCain had led by 21, now trails by 5. Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 20 points, now trails by 6. Among voters in Southeast VA, McCain had led by 28, now trails by 12. Among voters focused on Immigration, McCain had led by 16, now trails by 17. Among voters who attend religious services regularly, McCain had led by 24, now trails by 2.

1,700 VA adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 02/09/08 and 02/10/08. In the middle of the field period for this survey, Mike Huckabee won the Louisiana primary, won the Kansas caucus, and finished a strong 2nd in the WA state caucus. Any momentum Huckabee accrued from those wins would only partially be reflected in these interviews, half of which were completed before the results of the Saturday wins were known. By contrast, interviews in the SurveyUSA poll released 72 hours ago, on Friday 02/08/08, were conducted during the post-Super-Tuesday media coverage that described McCain for the first-time as the "almost certain" party nominee. These competing, buffeting forces are at work: McCain supporters may feel he has the Republican nomination mathematically "locked," and may not be as motivated to turn-out as they would otherwise. Anti-McCain supporters may be uniquely motivated to vote in protest against McCain, and may turn-out in larger numbers than here forecast.

An AP/Ipsos national poll reflects the same Huckabee surge that Rasmussen reported earlier this morning:

McCain 44
Huckabee 30
Ron Paul 9